It might seem early to talk about hurricanes, especially in Canada, but June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
There federal forecasters predicted 2018 will produce an average or slightly above average amount of tropical storm activity with 10 to 16 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes.
With Colorado State University's updated outlook now calling for a near-normal year with the total number of named storms being 14, including Alberto, the University's forecast now says 6 hurricanes with 2 becoming category 3 or greater in strength.
Hurricanes Irma and Maria accentuated problems that were already latent in areas that they blasted with storm surges and more-than-200 kilometer per hour winds.
There are nearly 7 million coastal homes facing more than $1.6 trillion in potential storm-surge reconstruction expenses this year, representing a 6.6% cost increase from last year's hurricane season.
The population in Southwest Florida has also grown considerably since it's last major hurricane, leading to what Mayfield called "hurricane amnesia", where many residents have either never been through a hurricane or forgotten how important it is to be prepared.
If there was one theme to the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, it might be "Oh, no, not again!"
Hurricane Season officially starts Friday and officials are warning people to hope for the best, but to prepare for the worst.
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Possibly, the biggest risk could be rising crude oil prices, which this month hit $80 a barrel, their highest since 2014. The role of fiscal policy was also clear in government consumption data that saw a growth of 16.8 percent year-on-year.
The county is also working to train with other emergency agencies more frequently and working with statewide partners to help speed the recovery of critical services like power and gasoline after a storm, according to Mayfield. "The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts". It was the fifth most active season since 1851. He believes that there will be eight hurricanes and four of those will be major hurricanes.
His computer models show that the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will be warmer than normal, and more storms will escalate in those areas and affect most all states along the Gulf of Mexico.
This year, another familiar name will not be part of the group: Sandy.
"If you're a law of averages type of person", Pfaff said, "we're due for a big one". When it lies closer to the mainland, tropical systems can be steered into the Mid Atlantic. The far North Atlantic also remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.
Preparation is the spice of life when it comes to hurricanes.
Dilley said his company can at least predict zones along the coasts that will likely see a landfall.
It was the first time the island had been without people in over 300 years, said the country's U.S. ambassador, Ronald Sanders.